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Now that Super Bowl LIX has been consigned to the history books, at least for anyone who doesn’t consider themselves a ‘still-celebrating’ Eagles fan, teams are looking forward to next season, hoping to build a roster that will help them contend or get them into a position where progression is evident.
For bettors, too, the offseason is an enjoyable time. The futures markets open the moment the Super Bowl ends – in fact, many sportsbooks release them before that – so if you’re looking to back your team for Super Bowl LX, you can do so now.
Yet, there is an argument that patience is key. Not everyone is a fan of long-term futures betting, and many prefer to bet on NFL point spreads on a game-by-game basis when the season is underway. Still, there can be an art to betting on futures at the opportune moment, getting value that you might not later in the season.
Indeed, if you follow how betting markets are released, you will probably notice that the early futures odds for the season are a little unimaginative. Sportsbooks tend to – by and large – place the teams that finished the previous season well as the top contenders for the next. For instance, the Eagles and Chiefs are the two market leaders for Super Bowl LX.
Tampa Bay showed how markets can change overnight in the offseason.
That’s understandable, of course. Yet, it overlooks that a lot can change in the offseason. Consider the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming off the 2019 season if you want an example. The Buccaneers had posted a 7-9 record and didn’t look like much. Still, a flurry of activity, including signing a confident Tom Brady, absolutely changed the team's complexion. The rest, as they say, is history.
There are certainly a few signposts for the season ahead. We know that a lot of business occurs in March once Free Agency opens. If a team makes a blockbuster move to bring in some star players, then this will naturally increase their chances of contending. The odds will follow that logic, too.
The above is perhaps one of the reasons that experienced bettors will try to make premeditated moves. What that means is that if your team decides to sign the equivalent of a prime Tom Brady (if one exists), the betting markets will react quickly. So, the key is to make a move before that signing or signings occur. It’s not always easy, and you’ll have to filter the accurate rumors from the nonsense, but you can get a fair idea of what might happen by following trade rumors and listening to what the GMs of different teams are saying.
Patience can also be rewarded in futures betting.
Of course, without sounding contradictory, there might be a case for waiting until the season starts before placing your future bets. The reason for this is to gauge which teams hit the ground running. For example, consider the San Francisco 49ers, a team that spent most of last year’s offseason near the top of the betting markets for Super Bowl LIX. Yet, a few weeks into the season, you could tell all was wrong with the team. You can be sure that plenty of bettors would have loved to change their minds after witnessing the 49ers’ disastrous campaign.
In the end, there is no correct answer about timing, yet there is logic in looking at the odds and judging whether there is value. If you look at a team today and believe it will make many changes in the offseason – the team will go for it, so to speak – then it might be worth having a punt at inflated odds. It’s all about weighing up what the sportsbooks offer and contrasting it to where you believe that team will be almost a year from now. It is not always easy, but it can deliver the value bettors crave.
